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CheckWeather USMiddletown
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Middletown weather

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Thunderstorm,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 89° in Middletown today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 80°, with a 26% chance of rain.

89°70°
80°65°
84°61°
89°65°
93°71°
80°69°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
88°
Thunderstorm
Today 88°·Low 72°·Rain 32%
AmericanNOAA GFS
88°
Heavy drizzle
Today 88°·Low 68°·Rain 32%
EuropeanECMWF
91°
Drizzle
Today 91°·Low 69°·Rain 80%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Middletown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
89° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
80° 65°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
84° 61°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
89° 65°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
93° 71°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
80° 69°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
82° 61°
±10°
Sat
Mostly clear
84° 63°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
89° 67°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
83° 65°
±19°
Tue
Light drizzle
76° 59°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 53°
models agree
Thu
Clear
73° 52°
models agree
Fri
Clear
75° 52°
models agree

Middletown, OH is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 28°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Middletown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Middletown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
41°
28°
Feb
51°
31°
Mar
55°
35°
Apr
65°
45°
May
75°
55°
Jun
82°
62°
Jul
85°
67°
Aug
84°
64°
Sep
80°
60°
Oct
67°
49°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
46°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Middletown?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±0.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F94±1.8 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°88° to 91°±48%32% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±2°79° to 81°±10%16% to 26% chance
Mon±1°84° to 85°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°88° to 89°±9%0% to 9% chance
Wed±2°92° to 94°±19%12% to 31% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Middletown

today, local time
Sunrise
07:09
Sunset
20:02
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Middletown today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Middletown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Middletown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Middletown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Middletown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Middletown (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Middletown?
July is typically the warmest month in Middletown, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Middletown get?
The coldest month in Middletown is January, when overnight lows average about 28°F.
How much rain does Middletown get?
Middletown sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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