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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Las Cruces weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Las Cruces's high today between 76° and 81°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 75°, with a 47% chance of rain.

79°60°
75°55°
73°58°
75°56°
77°58°
75°59°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
59°
Mainly clear
Feels 60° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 90%
AmericanNOAA GFS
59°
Mainly clear
Feels 59° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 81%
EuropeanECMWF
64°
Clear
Feels 61° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 69%

Latest for Las Cruces: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 59° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 59° Mainly clear · European (ECMWF): 64° Clear.

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Las Cruces weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Las Cruces…

Las Cruces weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Las Cruces swings 64°F across the year, from 96°F highs in June to 32°F lows in December, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 8 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 204 days a year at 77°F or above, 139 of them at 86°F or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 37 days.

Warmest month
June
96°F average high
Coldest month
December
32°F average low
Wettest month
August
8 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
102,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
204 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
37 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Las Cruces’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Las Cruces and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Las Cruces hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Las Cruces 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
79° 60°
±5°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
75° 55°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
73° 58°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
75° 56°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
77° 58°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
75° 59°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
71° 58°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
71° 57°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
72° 57°
±7°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 57°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
70° 55°
models agree
Wed
Showers
72° 54°
models agree
Thu
Showers
67° 51°
models agree

Las Cruces, New Mexico (NM) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 96°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 32°F), with roughly 8 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Las Cruces right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Las Cruces climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
56°
33°
Feb
61°
37°
Mar
68°
42°
Apr
77°
49°
May
86°
57°
Jun
96°
67°
Jul
95°
69°
Aug
93°
68°
Sep
88°
61°
Oct
78°
51°
Nov
64°
40°
Dec
57°
32°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Las Cruces' weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.7°F

Around Las Cruces, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average1998: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2001: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2002: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2003: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2004: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2005: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2006: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2007: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2008: −2.0°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2014: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2015: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.8°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2019: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.8°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.4°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

8 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −14 vs the 30-year average1996: −6 vs the 30-year average1997: −5 vs the 30-year average1998: −14 vs the 30-year average1999: −27 vs the 30-year average2000: +17 vs the 30-year average2001: +6 vs the 30-year average2002: +6 vs the 30-year average2003: +12 vs the 30-year average2004: +1 vs the 30-year average2005: +9 vs the 30-year average2006: −14 vs the 30-year average2007: −18 vs the 30-year average2008: −23 vs the 30-year average2009: −18 vs the 30-year average2010: −1 vs the 30-year average2011: +27 vs the 30-year average2012: +21 vs the 30-year average2013: −1 vs the 30-year average2014: −7 vs the 30-year average2015: −10 vs the 30-year average2016: −4 vs the 30-year average2017: −16 vs the 30-year average2018: +9 vs the 30-year average2019: +10 vs the 30-year average2020: +31 vs the 30-year average2021: −21 vs the 30-year average2022: +5 vs the 30-year average2023: +27 vs the 30-year average2024: +31 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

17 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F

1995: −4 vs the 30-year average1996: +4 vs the 30-year average1997: +15 vs the 30-year average1998: +9 vs the 30-year average1999: +6 vs the 30-year average2000: +5 vs the 30-year average2001: +11 vs the 30-year average2002: +9 vs the 30-year average2003: −2 vs the 30-year average2004: +3 vs the 30-year average2005: −10 vs the 30-year average2006: −1 vs the 30-year average2007: +13 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: +20 vs the 30-year average2010: +9 vs the 30-year average2011: +10 vs the 30-year average2012: +4 vs the 30-year average2013: +22 vs the 30-year average2014: −9 vs the 30-year average2015: −11 vs the 30-year average2016: −13 vs the 30-year average2017: −29 vs the 30-year average2018: −13 vs the 30-year average2019: −6 vs the 30-year average2020: −0 vs the 30-year average2021: −25 vs the 30-year average2022: +13 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: −26 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +0% vs the 30-year average1996: +3% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: +8% vs the 30-year average1999: −2% vs the 30-year average2000: −2% vs the 30-year average2001: −2% vs the 30-year average2002: −2% vs the 30-year average2003: +0% vs the 30-year average2004: −5% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: −5% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: +0% vs the 30-year average2010: +0% vs the 30-year average2011: +5% vs the 30-year average2012: +0% vs the 30-year average2013: +5% vs the 30-year average2014: +0% vs the 30-year average2015: −8% vs the 30-year average2016: +0% vs the 30-year average2017: +0% vs the 30-year average2018: +0% vs the 30-year average2019: +5% vs the 30-year average2020: +3% vs the 30-year average2021: +0% vs the 30-year average2022: −2% vs the 30-year average2023: +3% vs the 30-year average2024: +3% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.9°F−14−4+0%
1996−0.5°F−6+4+3%
1997−1.4°F−5+15−2%
1998−1.4°F−14+9+8%
1999−0.9°F−27+6−2%
2000+0.2°F+17+5−2%
2001±0.0°F+6+11−2%
2002±0.0°F+6+9−2%
2003+0.7°F+12−2+0%
2004−1.4°F+1+3−5%
2005−0.2°F+9−10−2%
2006−0.7°F−14−1−2%
2007−1.1°F−18+13−5%
2008−2.0°F−23+1+3%
2009−0.9°F−18+20+0%
2010−1.2°F−1+9+0%
2011+0.4°F+27+10+5%
2012+1.1°F+21+4+0%
2013−1.1°F−1+22+5%
2014+0.4°F−7−9+0%
2015+0.2°F−10−11−8%
2016+1.1°F−4−13+0%
2017+1.8°F−16−29+0%
2018+0.9°F+9−13+0%
2019±0.0°F+10−6+5%
2020+1.6°F+31−0+3%
2021+0.7°F−21−25+0%
2022+0.4°F+5+13−2%
2023+1.8°F+27−2+3%
2024+2.4°F+31−26+3%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Las Cruces, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Las Cruces?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F96±1.3 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
71
/100rank #2
76±2.4°F95±1.6 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°76° to 81°±22%30% to 52% chance
Tomorrow±4°72° to 76°±35%12% to 47% chance
Mon±3°72° to 75°±25%14% to 39% chance
Tue±3°74° to 77°±6%5% to 11% chance
Wed±2°76° to 78°±1%4% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Las Cruces

today, local time
Sunrise
07:17
Sunset
18:24
Daylight
11h 7m

Common questions

What's the weather in Las Cruces today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Las Cruces's high today between 76° and 81°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 75°, with a 47% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Las Cruces today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Las Cruces on Sunday, October 25: NWS 12%, American 12%, European 47%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 52%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Las Cruces?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Las Cruces (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Las Cruces?
June is typically the warmest month in Las Cruces, with average highs around 96°F.
How cold does Las Cruces get?
The coldest month in Las Cruces is December, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Las Cruces get?
Las Cruces sees roughly 8 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Las Cruces getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Las Cruces, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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