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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Lancaster weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 80° in Lancaster today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 78°, with a 2% chance of rain.

80°66°
78°60°
78°58°
81°56°
87°64°
84°70°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±12°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Drizzle
Today 80°·Low 66°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 67°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Light drizzle
Today 79°·Low 66°·Rain 47%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lancaster and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
80° 66°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
78° 60°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
78° 58°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
81° 56°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
87° 64°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
84° 70°
±12°
Fri
Mostly clear
79° 64°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
81° 60°
±6°
Sun
Light drizzle
85° 66°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
85° 66°
±10°
Tue
Drizzle
80° 63°
±21°
Wed
Drizzle
73° 58°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
74° 57°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
71° 57°
±12°

Lancaster, PA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 31°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lancaster right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lancaster climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
45°
31°
Feb
49°
31°
Mar
54°
35°
Apr
66°
45°
May
74°
52°
Jun
83°
62°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
84°
66°
Sep
77°
60°
Oct
68°
49°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
46°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lancaster?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F97±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
75±2.5°F95±1.4 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°79° to 81°±33%14% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±1°78° to 79°±1%1% to 2% chance
Mon±1°78° to 78°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±5°78° to 83°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±5°85° to 89°±12%4% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lancaster

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lancaster today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lancaster today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lancaster today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lancaster and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lancaster?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lancaster (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lancaster?
July is typically the warmest month in Lancaster, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Lancaster get?
The coldest month in Lancaster is January, when overnight lows average about 31°F.
How much rain does Lancaster get?
Lancaster sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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