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Honolulu weekend weather

This weekend in Honolulu, HI, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 81° across the weekend. Agreement is medium — plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Light drizzle
High 83°·Low 75°·Rain 26%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Cloudy
High 79°·Low 78°·Rain 12%

The models range from 79° to 83°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Light drizzle
High 84°·Low 75°·Rain 19%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Light drizzle
High 79°·Low 76°·Rain 27%

The models range from 79° to 84°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°80° to 86°±3%17% to 20% chance
Tomorrow±5°80° to 84°±7%6% to 13% chance
Sat±4°79° to 83°±14%12% to 26% chance
Sun±5°79° to 84°±8%19% to 27% chance
Mon±4°80° to 83°±7%25% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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