Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 6°F
Great Falls weather
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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Great Falls's high today between 40° and 46°, a 6° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 36°, with a 2% chance of rain.
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Great Falls weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Great Falls swings 64°F across the year, from 83°F highs in July to 19°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 14 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 77 days a year at 77°F or above, 34 of them at 86°F or above, 128 frost nights, and rain on 83 days.
Warmest month
July
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
19°F average low
Wettest month
June
14 in a year
Comfortable
2 months
May and September
Residents
60,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
98/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
77 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
128 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
83 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Great Falls’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Great Falls and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Great Falls hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Great Falls 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
43°27°
±6°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
36°26°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
39°26°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
46°31°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
44°33°
±14°
Thu
Cloudy
47°30°
±18°
Fri
Light snow
45°32°
±9°
Sat
Light snow
47°32°
±7°
Sun
Mostly clear
50°31°
±7°
Mon
Mostly clear
53°36°
±14°
Tue
Mostly clear
57°37°
±12°
Wed
Mostly clear
58°38°
±15°
Thu
Cloudy
57°42°
±9°
Great Falls, Montana (MT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 19°F), with roughly 14 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Great Falls right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
33°
19°
Feb
34°
19°
Mar
43°
25°
Apr
54°
34°
May
63°
43°
Jun
71°
50°
Jul
83°
57°
Aug
81°
57°
Sep
70°
48°
Oct
57°
37°
Nov
42°
27°
Dec
35°
21°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Great Falls' weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.7°F
Around Great Falls, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.7°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
4 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
9 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.2°F
−19
−1
−3%
1996
−3.6°F
−5
+18
−0%
1997
−1.0°F
−17
+7
−0%
1998
+1.3°F
+8
−9
−5%
1999
+0.9°F
−4
−4
+6%
2000
−0.3°F
+7
+15
−3%
2001
+1.3°F
+11
−1
−3%
2002
−1.2°F
−9
+17
+4%
2003
+1.5°F
+18
−2
−3%
2004
+0.4°F
−7
−13
−0%
2005
−0.3°F
−3
−8
−0%
2006
+1.5°F
+11
−3
+2%
2007
+1.5°F
+12
−15
+2%
2008
−1.4°F
−4
+12
+4%
2009
−1.9°F
−9
+21
−0%
2010
−1.8°F
−16
+2
−3%
2011
−1.4°F
−3
+15
+6%
2012
+1.5°F
+6
−3
+2%
2013
±0.0°F
+12
+14
−0%
2014
−0.7°F
−3
−3
+2%
2015
+1.8°F
−3
−23
−3%
2016
+1.5°F
−6
−30
+2%
2017
±0.0°F
+13
−3
−0%
2018
−1.0°F
−4
+4
−3%
2019
−2.8°F
−9
+9
−5%
2020
+0.6°F
−7
+3
+9%
2021
+1.5°F
+17
−3
+2%
2022
±0.0°F
+21
+1
+4%
2023
+1.7°F
−7
−7
−7%
2024
+2.0°F
+4
−15
−5%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Great Falls, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Great Falls?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F
98±0.7 mph
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
86
/100rank #2
73±2.7°F
95±1.7 mph
9597% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±6°40° to 46°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±1°36° to 37°
±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon
±1°39° to 40°
±2%4% to 6% chance
Tue
±5°44° to 49°
±3%27% to 30% chance
Wed
±14°39° to 53°
±16%20% to 36% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Great Falls
today, local time
Sunrise
07:57
Sunset
18:20
Daylight
10h 23m
Common questions
What's the weather in Great Falls today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Great Falls's high today between 40° and 46°, a 6° split. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 36°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Great Falls today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Great Falls on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 2%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Great Falls?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Great Falls (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Great Falls?
July is typically the warmest month in Great Falls, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Great Falls get?
The coldest month in Great Falls is January, when overnight lows average about 19°F.
How much rain does Great Falls get?
Great Falls sees roughly 14 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Great Falls getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Great Falls, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.7°F, within the normal swing from year to year.
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