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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Gaithersburg weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 80° in Gaithersburg today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 81°, with a 2% chance of rain.

80°70°
81°62°
81°61°
84°61°
89°65°
90°70°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Drizzle
Today 80°·Low 70°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 69°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Light drizzle
Today 81°·Low 71°·Rain 59%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Gaithersburg and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
80° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
81° 62°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
81° 61°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
84° 61°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
89° 65°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
90° 70°
±10°
Fri
Cloudy
82° 66°
±12°
Sat
Mostly clear
85° 64°
±11°
Sun
Mostly clear
89° 69°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
89° 67°
±16°
Tue
Drizzle
82° 64°
±25°
Wed
Showers
72° 59°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
75° 59°
models agree
Fri
Showers
72° 59°
±14°

Gaithersburg, MD is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 45 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Gaithersburg right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Gaithersburg climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
32°
Feb
50°
33°
Mar
55°
37°
Apr
68°
47°
May
74°
53°
Jun
84°
62°
Jul
89°
69°
Aug
85°
67°
Sep
77°
61°
Oct
68°
50°
Nov
56°
40°
Dec
47°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Gaithersburg?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
81±1.9°F97±0.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F96±1.3 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°79° to 81°±45%14% to 59% chance
Tomorrow±3°80° to 83°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±4°79° to 83°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±4°82° to 86°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±5°86° to 92°±12%2% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Gaithersburg

today, local time
Sunrise
06:41
Sunset
19:33
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in Gaithersburg today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Gaithersburg today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Gaithersburg today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Gaithersburg and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Gaithersburg?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Gaithersburg (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Gaithersburg?
July is typically the warmest month in Gaithersburg, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Gaithersburg get?
The coldest month in Gaithersburg is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Gaithersburg get?
Gaithersburg sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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