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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Farmington weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 61° in Farmington today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 59°, with a 51% chance of rain.

61°49°
59°44°
61°42°
63°41°
66°42°
66°45°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
50°
Light drizzle
Feels 45° · Wind 9 mph · Humidity 87%
AmericanNOAA GFS
47°
Clear
Feels 44° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 88%
EuropeanECMWF
48°
Light drizzle
Feels 43° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 84%

Latest for Farmington: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 50° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 47° Clear · European (ECMWF): 48° Light drizzle.

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Farmington weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Farmington…

Farmington weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Farmington swings 74°F across the year, from 92°F highs in July to 18°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 138 days a year at 77°F or above, 86 of them at 86°F or above, 128 frost nights, and rain on 49 days.

Warmest month
July
92°F average high
Coldest month
January
18°F average low
Wettest month
August
9 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
43,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
138 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
128 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
49 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Farmington’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Farmington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Farmington hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Farmington 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
61° 49°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
59° 44°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
61° 42°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
63° 41°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
66° 42°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
66° 45°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
61° 47°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
57° 46°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
58° 46°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
58° 44°
±8°
Tue
Cloudy
57° 42°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
58° 42°
±11°
Thu
Cloudy
57° 41°
±15°

Farmington, New Mexico (NM) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 92°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 18°F), with roughly 9 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Farmington right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Farmington climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
37°
18°
Feb
45°
21°
Mar
55°
32°
Apr
67°
37°
May
77°
49°
Jun
87°
58°
Jul
92°
62°
Aug
87°
61°
Sep
78°
51°
Oct
65°
37°
Nov
51°
27°
Dec
38°
18°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Farmington's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.9°F

Around Farmington, 2015-2024 averaged 0.9°F warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2018.

1995: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average1998: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2002: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2003: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2005: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2006: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2010: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2011: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2014: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2015: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2016: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2018: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2019: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2021: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2023: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2024: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

4 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −1 vs the 30-year average1996: −7 vs the 30-year average1997: −9 vs the 30-year average1998: −5 vs the 30-year average1999: −12 vs the 30-year average2000: +3 vs the 30-year average2001: −1 vs the 30-year average2002: +19 vs the 30-year average2003: +11 vs the 30-year average2004: −8 vs the 30-year average2005: +3 vs the 30-year average2006: −1 vs the 30-year average2007: +1 vs the 30-year average2008: −9 vs the 30-year average2009: −1 vs the 30-year average2010: −2 vs the 30-year average2011: −0 vs the 30-year average2012: +1 vs the 30-year average2013: −0 vs the 30-year average2014: −5 vs the 30-year average2015: −10 vs the 30-year average2016: +2 vs the 30-year average2017: −2 vs the 30-year average2018: +6 vs the 30-year average2019: +1 vs the 30-year average2020: +12 vs the 30-year average2021: +3 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: +17 vs the 30-year average2024: +3 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

11 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +3 vs the 30-year average1996: +12 vs the 30-year average1997: +16 vs the 30-year average1998: +15 vs the 30-year average1999: +3 vs the 30-year average2000: +5 vs the 30-year average2001: −6 vs the 30-year average2002: +3 vs the 30-year average2003: −1 vs the 30-year average2004: −6 vs the 30-year average2005: −9 vs the 30-year average2006: +10 vs the 30-year average2007: −11 vs the 30-year average2008: +26 vs the 30-year average2009: +2 vs the 30-year average2010: +16 vs the 30-year average2011: +15 vs the 30-year average2012: −8 vs the 30-year average2013: +12 vs the 30-year average2014: −12 vs the 30-year average2015: −13 vs the 30-year average2016: −19 vs the 30-year average2017: −39 vs the 30-year average2018: −4 vs the 30-year average2019: +1 vs the 30-year average2020: −12 vs the 30-year average2021: −4 vs the 30-year average2022: +10 vs the 30-year average2023: +7 vs the 30-year average2024: +2 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

no clear change

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −4% vs the 30-year average1996: −1% vs the 30-year average1997: −6% vs the 30-year average1998: −1% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: −1% vs the 30-year average2001: −1% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: +2% vs the 30-year average2004: −4% vs the 30-year average2005: −1% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: −1% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: +2% vs the 30-year average2010: +2% vs the 30-year average2011: +5% vs the 30-year average2012: +2% vs the 30-year average2013: +5% vs the 30-year average2014: +5% vs the 30-year average2015: −6% vs the 30-year average2016: −4% vs the 30-year average2017: −4% vs the 30-year average2018: +2% vs the 30-year average2019: +2% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: −1% vs the 30-year average2022: −1% vs the 30-year average2023: −1% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.0°F−1+3−4%
1996−0.5°F−7+12−1%
1997−1.7°F−9+16−6%
1998−1.0°F−5+15−1%
1999−0.8°F−12+3−1%
2000+0.8°F+3+5−1%
2001+0.8°F−1−6−1%
2002+0.4°F+19+3+2%
2003+0.8°F+11−1+2%
2004−0.5°F−8−6−4%
2005+0.1°F+3−9−1%
2006−0.5°F−1+10−1%
2007+0.3°F+1−11−1%
2008−1.5°F−9+26+5%
2009−0.6°F−1+2+2%
2010−0.8°F−2+16+2%
2011−1.4°F−0+15+5%
2012+1.5°F+1−8+2%
2013−1.4°F−0+12+5%
2014+0.4°F−5−12+5%
2015+0.1°F−10−13−6%
2016−0.3°F+2−19−4%
2017+1.3°F−2−39−4%
2018+1.7°F+6−4+2%
2019−0.8°F+1+1+2%
2020+1.3°F+12−12+2%
2021+1.2°F+3−4−1%
2022+0.1°F+1+10−1%
2023+0.4°F+17+7−1%
2024+1.5°F+3+2−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Farmington, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Farmington?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
71
/100rank #2
67±3.3°F94±1.8 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°59° to 63°±43%51% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°58° to 60°±30%21% to 51% chance
Mon±2°60° to 62°±8%4% to 12% chance
Tue±3°63° to 65°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±3°64° to 67°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Farmington

today, local time
Sunrise
07:28
Sunset
18:24
Daylight
10h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Farmington today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 61° in Farmington today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 59°, with a 51% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Farmington today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Farmington on Sunday, October 25: NWS 21%, American 21%, European 51%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 94%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Farmington?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Farmington (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Farmington?
July is typically the warmest month in Farmington, with average highs around 92°F.
How cold does Farmington get?
The coldest month in Farmington is January, when overnight lows average about 18°F.
How much rain does Farmington get?
Farmington sees roughly 9 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Farmington getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Farmington, 2015-2024 averaged 0.9°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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