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Ellisville weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
51°
Mainly clear
Feels 49° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 85%
AmericanNOAA GFS
50°
Partly cloudy
Feels 47° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 83%
EuropeanECMWF
53°
Mainly clear
Feels 51° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 77%

Latest for Ellisville: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 51° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 50° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 53° Mainly clear.

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Ellisville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Ellisville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ellisville swings 64°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 24°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 48 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
24°F average low
Wettest month
May
48 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
9,284
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ellisville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ellisville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ellisville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Ellisville, Missouri (MO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 24°F), with roughly 48 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ellisville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ellisville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
39°
24°
Feb
47°
26°
Mar
55°
35°
Apr
67°
46°
May
77°
56°
Jun
85°
63°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
86°
68°
Sep
79°
60°
Oct
68°
48°
Nov
54°
38°
Dec
44°
29°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Ellisville has changed since 1995

Ellisville sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Chesterfield. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Chesterfield page.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Ellisville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ellisville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ellisville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ellisville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ellisville?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Ellisville forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Ellisville?
July is typically the warmest month in Ellisville, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Ellisville get?
The coldest month in Ellisville is January, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Ellisville get?
Ellisville sees roughly 48 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

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