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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Dover weather

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Mostly clear,warmer tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Dover today. Tomorrow: mostly clear, around 64°, with a 0% chance of rain.

59°30°
64°33°
68°38°
52°34°
51°29°
61°34°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
45°
Clear
Feels 42° · Wind 1 mph · Humidity 70%
AmericanNOAA GFS
43°
Clear
Feels 38° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 67%
EuropeanECMWF
45°
Clear
Feels 39° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 55%

Latest for Dover: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 45° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 43° Clear · European (ECMWF): 45° Clear.

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Dover weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Dover…

Dover weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Dover swings 62°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 19°F lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 49 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 79 days a year at 77°F or above, 25 of them at 86°F or above, 121 frost nights, and rain on 121 days.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
January
19°F average low
Wettest month
October
49 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
31,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
79 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
121 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
121 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Dover’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Dover and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dover hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dover 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
59° 30°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
64° 33°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
68° 38°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
52° 34°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
51° 29°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
61° 34°
±4°
Fri
Partly cloudy
65° 44°
±6°
Sat
Mostly clear
59° 40°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
58° 39°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
60° 42°
±14°
Tue
Cloudy
64° 45°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
52° 35°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
52° 32°
±4°

Dover, New Hampshire (NH) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 19°F), with roughly 49 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Dover right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Dover climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
33°
19°
Feb
37°
19°
Mar
42°
26°
Apr
54°
36°
May
66°
46°
Jun
75°
56°
Jul
81°
64°
Aug
77°
61°
Sep
71°
55°
Oct
60°
44°
Nov
48°
33°
Dec
38°
24°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Dover's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.9°F

Around Dover, 2015-2024 averaged 1.9°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2012.

1995: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average1996: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average1998: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average1999: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2000: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2002: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2003: −2.4°F vs the 30-year average2004: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average2005: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2007: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2008: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2010: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2012: +2.2°F vs the 30-year average2013: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2014: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2015: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2019: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2021: +1.9°F vs the 30-year average2022: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.9°F vs the 30-year average2024: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 77°F

9 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +3 vs the 30-year average1996: −14 vs the 30-year average1997: −5 vs the 30-year average1998: −13 vs the 30-year average1999: +8 vs the 30-year average2000: −13 vs the 30-year average2001: +5 vs the 30-year average2002: +17 vs the 30-year average2003: −6 vs the 30-year average2004: −13 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: −7 vs the 30-year average2007: −4 vs the 30-year average2008: −11 vs the 30-year average2009: −9 vs the 30-year average2010: +10 vs the 30-year average2011: −1 vs the 30-year average2012: +8 vs the 30-year average2013: +1 vs the 30-year average2014: −6 vs the 30-year average2015: +10 vs the 30-year average2016: +17 vs the 30-year average2017: −10 vs the 30-year average2018: +11 vs the 30-year average2019: +2 vs the 30-year average2020: +16 vs the 30-year average2021: +4 vs the 30-year average2022: +16 vs the 30-year average2023: −4 vs the 30-year average2024: +2 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

13 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +23 vs the 30-year average1996: +9 vs the 30-year average1997: +18 vs the 30-year average1998: −14 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: +2 vs the 30-year average2001: +5 vs the 30-year average2002: −1 vs the 30-year average2003: +18 vs the 30-year average2004: +12 vs the 30-year average2005: +16 vs the 30-year average2006: −24 vs the 30-year average2007: +8 vs the 30-year average2008: +13 vs the 30-year average2009: +7 vs the 30-year average2010: −3 vs the 30-year average2011: −3 vs the 30-year average2012: −21 vs the 30-year average2013: −0 vs the 30-year average2014: +7 vs the 30-year average2015: +9 vs the 30-year average2016: −10 vs the 30-year average2017: −6 vs the 30-year average2018: +2 vs the 30-year average2019: +14 vs the 30-year average2020: −17 vs the 30-year average2021: −4 vs the 30-year average2022: −9 vs the 30-year average2023: −24 vs the 30-year average2024: −19 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −0% vs the 30-year average1996: +2% vs the 30-year average1997: +4% vs the 30-year average1998: −3% vs the 30-year average1999: −0% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −7% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: −3% vs the 30-year average2004: −0% vs the 30-year average2005: −0% vs the 30-year average2006: −0% vs the 30-year average2007: −0% vs the 30-year average2008: −3% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: +7% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: −5% vs the 30-year average2013: −0% vs the 30-year average2014: −0% vs the 30-year average2015: −0% vs the 30-year average2016: +2% vs the 30-year average2017: +2% vs the 30-year average2018: +4% vs the 30-year average2019: +2% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: −0% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −3% vs the 30-year average2024: −3% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >77°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.5°F+3+23−0%
1996−2.1°F−14+9+2%
1997−1.5°F−5+18+4%
1998+0.3°F−13−14−3%
1999+0.6°F+8−1−0%
2000−1.5°F−13+2+4%
2001+0.3°F+5+5−7%
2002+0.4°F+17−1+2%
2003−2.4°F−6+18−3%
2004−2.1°F−13+12−0%
2005−1.0°F−3+16−0%
2006+0.6°F−7−24−0%
2007−1.0°F−4+8−0%
2008−0.5°F−11+13−3%
2009−1.4°F−9+7−0%
2010+1.3°F+10−3+7%
2011+0.4°F−1−3−3%
2012+2.2°F+8−21−5%
2013−0.1°F+1−0−0%
2014−0.8°F−6+7−0%
2015−0.3°F+10+9−0%
2016+1.3°F+17−10+2%
2017+0.3°F−10−6+2%
2018+0.3°F+11+2+4%
2019−0.5°F+2+14+2%
2020+1.5°F+16−17+2%
2021+1.9°F+4−4−0%
2022+1.5°F+16−9+2%
2023+1.9°F−4−24−3%
2024+1.7°F+2−19−3%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dover, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Dover?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F94±1.8 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°58° to 60°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°63° to 67°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°67° to 70°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°51° to 54°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°49° to 52°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dover

today, local time
Sunrise
07:08
Sunset
17:46
Daylight
10h 38m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dover today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Dover today. Tomorrow: mostly clear, around 64°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Dover today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Dover on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dover?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dover (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dover?
July is typically the warmest month in Dover, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Dover get?
The coldest month in Dover is January, when overnight lows average about 19°F.
How much rain does Dover get?
Dover sees roughly 49 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Dover getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Dover, 2015-2024 averaged 1.9°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

South BerwickSomersworthEliotDurhamNewmarketBarringtonRochesterStratham Station

More US weather

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