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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Chico weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Chico's high today between 75° and 80°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 73°, with a 0% chance of rain.

77°48°
73°49°
69°50°
69°46°
68°49°
66°47°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
50°
Clear
Feels 44° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 64%
AmericanNOAA GFS
46°
Clear
Feels 40° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 58%
EuropeanECMWF
51°
Clear
Feels 46° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 62%

Latest for Chico: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 50° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 46° Clear · European (ECMWF): 51° Clear.

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Chico weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Chico…

Chico weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Chico swings 59°F across the year, from 97°F highs in July to 38°F lows in December, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 35 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 170 days a year at 77°F or above, 126 of them at 86°F or above, 8 frost nights, and rain on 70 days.

Warmest month
July
97°F average high
Coldest month
December
38°F average low
Wettest month
December
35 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, October and November
Residents
121,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
98/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
170 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
8 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
70 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Chico’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Chico and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chico hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chico 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
77° 48°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
73° 49°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
69° 50°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
69° 46°
±4°
Wed
Mostly clear
68° 49°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
66° 47°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
64° 48°
±11°
Sat
Drizzle
67° 47°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
70° 49°
±13°
Mon
Cloudy
69° 51°
±14°
Tue
Partly cloudy
73° 54°
±16°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 50°
±13°
Thu
Cloudy
69° 54°
±16°

Chico, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 97°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 38°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Chico right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Chico climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
54°
39°
Feb
58°
41°
Mar
61°
45°
Apr
69°
46°
May
81°
54°
Jun
90°
61°
Jul
97°
65°
Aug
95°
66°
Sep
90°
62°
Oct
77°
52°
Nov
62°
43°
Dec
53°
38°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Chico's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+2.1°F

Around Chico, 2015-2024 averaged 2.1°F warmer than 1995-2004. 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2020.

1995: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average1996: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average1997: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average1998: −3.6°F vs the 30-year average1999: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2000: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2003: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2004: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2005: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2006: −1.6°F vs the 30-year average2007: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2008: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2010: −2.4°F vs the 30-year average2011: −3.1°F vs the 30-year average2012: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2013: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2014: +2.3°F vs the 30-year average2015: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average2016: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2018: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2019: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2020: +2.9°F vs the 30-year average2021: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average2022: +2.0°F vs the 30-year average2023: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.3°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

22 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004

1995: −38 vs the 30-year average1996: −9 vs the 30-year average1997: −12 vs the 30-year average1998: −35 vs the 30-year average1999: −22 vs the 30-year average2000: −10 vs the 30-year average2001: +10 vs the 30-year average2002: +4 vs the 30-year average2003: +1 vs the 30-year average2004: +3 vs the 30-year average2005: −17 vs the 30-year average2006: −14 vs the 30-year average2007: −9 vs the 30-year average2008: +19 vs the 30-year average2009: +3 vs the 30-year average2010: −14 vs the 30-year average2011: −15 vs the 30-year average2012: +14 vs the 30-year average2013: −2 vs the 30-year average2014: +16 vs the 30-year average2015: +14 vs the 30-year average2016: +6 vs the 30-year average2017: +6 vs the 30-year average2018: +4 vs the 30-year average2019: −6 vs the 30-year average2020: +27 vs the 30-year average2021: +27 vs the 30-year average2022: +13 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: +25 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

2 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −5 vs the 30-year average1996: −5 vs the 30-year average1997: +4 vs the 30-year average1998: +5 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: −6 vs the 30-year average2001: +8 vs the 30-year average2002: +7 vs the 30-year average2003: −5 vs the 30-year average2004: +1 vs the 30-year average2005: −6 vs the 30-year average2006: +2 vs the 30-year average2007: +9 vs the 30-year average2008: +5 vs the 30-year average2009: +2 vs the 30-year average2010: +2 vs the 30-year average2011: +3 vs the 30-year average2012: +1 vs the 30-year average2013: +10 vs the 30-year average2014: −6 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: −0 vs the 30-year average2017: −0 vs the 30-year average2018: −3 vs the 30-year average2019: +1 vs the 30-year average2020: −7 vs the 30-year average2021: −3 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: −0 vs the 30-year average2024: −7 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+5%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004

1995: +3% vs the 30-year average1996: +3% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: −1% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: −7% vs the 30-year average2001: −1% vs the 30-year average2002: −4% vs the 30-year average2003: −7% vs the 30-year average2004: −1% vs the 30-year average2005: −4% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: −4% vs the 30-year average2008: −1% vs the 30-year average2009: −1% vs the 30-year average2010: +3% vs the 30-year average2011: −4% vs the 30-year average2012: +3% vs the 30-year average2013: −4% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: −1% vs the 30-year average2016: +3% vs the 30-year average2017: +6% vs the 30-year average2018: −1% vs the 30-year average2019: +6% vs the 30-year average2020: −4% vs the 30-year average2021: +6% vs the 30-year average2022: +3% vs the 30-year average2023: +6% vs the 30-year average2024: +6% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.1°F−38−5+3%
1996±0.0°F−9−5+3%
1997−0.2°F−12+4−4%
1998−3.6°F−35+5−1%
1999−1.5°F−22−1−1%
2000−1.1°F−10−6−7%
2001+0.5°F+10+8−1%
2002−0.2°F+4+7−4%
2003−0.2°F+1−5−7%
2004+0.2°F+3+1−1%
2005−0.6°F−17−6−4%
2006−1.6°F−14+2−1%
2007−0.6°F−9+9−4%
2008−0.2°F+19+5−1%
2009−0.7°F+3+2−1%
2010−2.4°F−14+2+3%
2011−3.1°F−15+3−4%
2012−0.2°F+14+1+3%
2013+0.2°F−2+10−4%
2014+2.3°F+16−6−1%
2015+2.1°F+14+2−1%
2016+0.9°F+6−0+3%
2017+0.9°F+6−0+6%
2018+1.6°F+4−3−1%
2019−0.2°F−6+1+6%
2020+2.9°F+27−7−4%
2021+2.1°F+27−3+6%
2022+2.0°F+13+1+3%
2023−0.4°F−2−0+6%
2024+2.3°F+25−7+6%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Chico, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Chico?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F97±0.8 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
95
/100rank #2
91±0.9°F95±1.5 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°75° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°73° to 74°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°67° to 71°models agree6% to 6% chance
Tue±4°67° to 71°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±2°67° to 68°±1%2% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chico

today, local time
Sunrise
07:27
Sunset
18:15
Daylight
10h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chico today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Chico's high today between 75° and 80°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 73°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Chico today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Chico on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chico?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chico (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the American at 95. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chico?
July is typically the warmest month in Chico, with average highs around 97°F.
How cold does Chico get?
The coldest month in Chico is December, when overnight lows average about 38°F.
How much rain does Chico get?
Chico sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Chico getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Chico, 2015-2024 averaged 2.1°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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More US weather

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