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Box Elder weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
40°
Partly cloudy
Feels 23° · Wind 30 mph · Humidity 68%
AmericanNOAA GFS
41°
Overcast
Feels 28° · Wind 21 mph · Humidity 68%
EuropeanECMWF
42°
Partly cloudy
Feels 29° · Wind 22 mph · Humidity 60%

Latest for Box Elder: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 40° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 41° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 42° Partly cloudy.

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Box Elder weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Box Elder weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Box Elder swings 67°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 17°F lows in February, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 18 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
February
17°F average low
Wettest month
May
18 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
June and September
Residents
9,289
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Box Elder and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Box Elder hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Box Elder 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Box Elder, South Dakota (SD) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 17°F), with roughly 18 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Box Elder right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Box Elder climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
35°
18°
Feb
39°
17°
Mar
46°
25°
Apr
54°
32°
May
66°
45°
Jun
76°
55°
Jul
84°
61°
Aug
83°
61°
Sep
74°
50°
Oct
59°
37°
Nov
45°
26°
Dec
35°
17°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Box Elder has changed since 1995

Box Elder sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Rapid City. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Rapid City page.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Box Elder today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Box Elder today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Box Elder today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Box Elder and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Box Elder?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Box Elder forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Box Elder?
July is typically the warmest month in Box Elder, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Box Elder get?
The coldest month in Box Elder is February, when overnight lows average about 17°F.
How much rain does Box Elder get?
Box Elder sees roughly 18 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

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