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CheckWeather USBirmingham
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Birmingham weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 97° in Birmingham today. Tomorrow looks showers around 99°, with a 31% chance of rain.

97°76°
99°76°
93°76°
91°74°
92°74°
92°74°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Drizzle
Today 96°·Low 76°·Rain 9%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Partly cloudy
Today 99°·Low 76°·Rain 9%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Light drizzle
Today 97°·Low 76°·Rain 69%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Birmingham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
97° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
99° 76°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
93° 76°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
91° 74°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
92° 74°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
92° 74°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
92° 74°
models agree
Sat
Thunderstorm
92° 73°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
92° 73°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
91° 74°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
89° 70°
±12°
Wed
Drizzle
84° 66°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
85° 65°
models agree
Fri
Clear
86° 64°
models agree

Birmingham, AL is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 38°F), with roughly 53 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Birmingham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Birmingham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
55°
38°
Feb
63°
44°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
72°
53°
May
81°
62°
Jun
88°
68°
Jul
89°
72°
Aug
91°
71°
Sep
84°
67°
Oct
76°
56°
Nov
66°
49°
Dec
57°
40°

Which forecast is most accurate in Birmingham?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F96±1.3 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
57
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F92±2.6 mph039% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°96° to 99°±60%9% to 69% chance
Tomorrow±3°97° to 100°±6%25% to 31% chance
Mon±4°92° to 96°±12%15% to 27% chance
Tue±5°90° to 94°±24%3% to 27% chance
Wed±2°91° to 93°±28%9% to 37% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Birmingham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:07
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Birmingham today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Birmingham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Birmingham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Birmingham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Birmingham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Birmingham (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 57. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Birmingham?
August is typically the warmest month in Birmingham, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Birmingham get?
The coldest month in Birmingham is January, when overnight lows average about 38°F.
How much rain does Birmingham get?
Birmingham sees roughly 53 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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