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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Bethlehem weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 79° in Bethlehem today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 77°, with a 25% chance of rain.

79°65°
77°61°
77°58°
80°56°
84°63°
77°68°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
79°
Partly cloudy
Today 79°·Low 65°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 66°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
78°
Cloudy
Today 78°·Low 65°·Rain 22%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Bethlehem and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
79° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
77° 61°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
77° 58°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
80° 56°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
84° 63°
±4°
Thu
Showers
77° 68°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
78° 63°
±9°
Sat
Cloudy
79° 58°
±10°
Sun
Partly cloudy
85° 63°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
84° 66°
±13°
Tue
Drizzle
79° 63°
±21°
Wed
Drizzle
72° 58°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
74° 56°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
69° 57°
±12°

Bethlehem, PA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 27°F), with roughly 44 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Bethlehem right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Bethlehem climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
29°
Feb
47°
27°
Mar
52°
33°
Apr
64°
43°
May
73°
50°
Jun
82°
60°
Jul
87°
67°
Aug
82°
63°
Sep
76°
58°
Oct
67°
47°
Nov
54°
37°
Dec
44°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Bethlehem?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F95±1.5 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°78° to 79°±19%3% to 22% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree77° to 77°±11%14% to 25% chance
Monmodels agree77° to 77°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tue±1°80° to 81°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±4°82° to 86°±6%6% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bethlehem

today, local time
Sunrise
06:32
Sunset
19:27
Daylight
12h 55m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bethlehem today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Bethlehem today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bethlehem today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Bethlehem and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bethlehem?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bethlehem (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bethlehem?
July is typically the warmest month in Bethlehem, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Bethlehem get?
The coldest month in Bethlehem is February, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does Bethlehem get?
Bethlehem sees roughly 44 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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