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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Baltimore weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Baltimore today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 82°, with a 3% chance of rain.

82°71°
82°65°
80°64°
84°65°
89°69°
91°74°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Light drizzle
Today 82°·Low 72°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
82°
Cloudy
Today 82°·Low 70°·Rain 12%
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Thunderstorm
Today 81°·Low 73°·Rain 59%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Baltimore and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
82° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
82° 65°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
80° 64°
±5°
Tue
Mostly clear
84° 65°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
89° 69°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
91° 74°
±7°
Fri
Partly cloudy
84° 69°
±12°
Sat
Mostly clear
84° 68°
±12°
Sun
Mostly clear
86° 72°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
87° 72°
±17°
Tue
Drizzle
83° 69°
±25°
Wed
Drizzle
76° 63°
±9°
Thu
Light drizzle
77° 62°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
72° 61°
±10°

Baltimore, MD is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 50 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Baltimore right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Baltimore climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
32°
Feb
51°
33°
Mar
56°
37°
Apr
67°
47°
May
73°
54°
Jun
84°
63°
Jul
88°
70°
Aug
85°
67°
Sep
78°
62°
Oct
69°
51°
Nov
57°
41°
Dec
47°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Baltimore?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
80±2.0°F96±1.2 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F92±2.6 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°81° to 82°±47%12% to 59% chance
Tomorrow±1°81° to 82°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±5°79° to 83°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tue±3°83° to 86°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°87° to 92°±17%1% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Baltimore

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
19:31
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Baltimore today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Baltimore today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Baltimore today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Baltimore and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Baltimore?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Baltimore (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Baltimore?
July is typically the warmest month in Baltimore, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Baltimore get?
The coldest month in Baltimore is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Baltimore get?
Baltimore sees roughly 50 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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