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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°F

Aurora weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Aurora's high today between 67° and 71°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 73°, with a 3% chance of rain.

70°48°
73°49°
67°50°
67°50°
72°53°
71°52°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
49°
Mainly clear
Feels 46° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 90%
AmericanNOAA GFS
48°
Clear
Feels 44° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 81%
EuropeanECMWF
51°
Overcast
Feels 47° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 81%

Latest for Aurora: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 49° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 48° Clear · European (ECMWF): 51° Overcast.

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Aurora weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Aurora…

Aurora weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Aurora swings 66°F across the year, from 83°F highs in July to 17°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 39 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 100 days a year at 77°F or above, 27 of them at 86°F or above, 118 frost nights, and rain on 128 days.

Warmest month
July
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
17°F average low
Wettest month
August
39 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
201,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
100 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
118 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
128 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Aurora’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Aurora and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Aurora hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Aurora 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
70° 48°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
73° 49°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
67° 50°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
67° 50°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
72° 53°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
71° 52°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
71° 52°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
70° 54°
±6°
Sun
Drizzle
64° 52°
±8°
Mon
Drizzle
60° 42°
±9°
Tue
Cloudy
47° 40°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
51° 39°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
57° 41°
±12°

Aurora, Illinois (IL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 17°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Aurora right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Aurora climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
17°
Feb
37°
19°
Mar
47°
29°
Apr
58°
38°
May
70°
48°
Jun
80°
59°
Jul
83°
64°
Aug
81°
62°
Sep
74°
56°
Oct
61°
43°
Nov
46°
32°
Dec
35°
23°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Aurora's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.1°F

Around Aurora, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +1.1°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average1996: −3.3°F vs the 30-year average1997: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average1998: +2.4°F vs the 30-year average1999: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2000: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2002: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2003: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2004: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2005: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2006: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2008: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average2009: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2010: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2011: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2012: +3.5°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average2014: −3.5°F vs the 30-year average2015: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2018: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2019: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2020: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2021: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2022: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.9°F vs the 30-year average2024: +3.2°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 86°F

2 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1 vs the 30-year average1996: −20 vs the 30-year average1997: −2 vs the 30-year average1998: +2 vs the 30-year average1999: +4 vs the 30-year average2000: −13 vs the 30-year average2001: +13 vs the 30-year average2002: +14 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −17 vs the 30-year average2005: +43 vs the 30-year average2006: +5 vs the 30-year average2007: −0 vs the 30-year average2008: −17 vs the 30-year average2009: −22 vs the 30-year average2010: −1 vs the 30-year average2011: −3 vs the 30-year average2012: +39 vs the 30-year average2013: −9 vs the 30-year average2014: −29 vs the 30-year average2015: −12 vs the 30-year average2016: +1 vs the 30-year average2017: −13 vs the 30-year average2018: +3 vs the 30-year average2019: −12 vs the 30-year average2020: −1 vs the 30-year average2021: +24 vs the 30-year average2022: +3 vs the 30-year average2023: +6 vs the 30-year average2024: +13 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

3 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +11 vs the 30-year average1996: +27 vs the 30-year average1997: +13 vs the 30-year average1998: −22 vs the 30-year average1999: −6 vs the 30-year average2000: −2 vs the 30-year average2001: −7 vs the 30-year average2002: +13 vs the 30-year average2003: −5 vs the 30-year average2004: −5 vs the 30-year average2005: −6 vs the 30-year average2006: −5 vs the 30-year average2007: −1 vs the 30-year average2008: +11 vs the 30-year average2009: −7 vs the 30-year average2010: −6 vs the 30-year average2011: −7 vs the 30-year average2012: −19 vs the 30-year average2013: +15 vs the 30-year average2014: +12 vs the 30-year average2015: −15 vs the 30-year average2016: −12 vs the 30-year average2017: −13 vs the 30-year average2018: +25 vs the 30-year average2019: +10 vs the 30-year average2020: +13 vs the 30-year average2021: −1 vs the 30-year average2022: +12 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: −26 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −0% vs the 30-year average1996: +2% vs the 30-year average1997: +2% vs the 30-year average1998: −5% vs the 30-year average1999: +2% vs the 30-year average2000: +2% vs the 30-year average2001: −0% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: +2% vs the 30-year average2004: +4% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: +2% vs the 30-year average2007: +4% vs the 30-year average2008: +4% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: −2% vs the 30-year average2011: −0% vs the 30-year average2012: −0% vs the 30-year average2013: −0% vs the 30-year average2014: −0% vs the 30-year average2015: −0% vs the 30-year average2016: −2% vs the 30-year average2017: −0% vs the 30-year average2018: −5% vs the 30-year average2019: −0% vs the 30-year average2020: −0% vs the 30-year average2021: −2% vs the 30-year average2022: +6% vs the 30-year average2023: −5% vs the 30-year average2024: −0% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >86°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−2.1°F+1+11−0%
1996−3.3°F−20+27+2%
1997−2.1°F−2+13+2%
1998+2.4°F+2−22−5%
1999+0.6°F+4−6+2%
2000−0.4°F−13−2+2%
2001+0.6°F+13−7−0%
2002+0.5°F+14+13+2%
2003−1.0°F+4−5+2%
2004+0.1°F−17−5+4%
2005+1.5°F+43−6−2%
2006+1.2°F+5−5+2%
2007+0.3°F−0−1+4%
2008−2.1°F−17+11+4%
2009−2.2°F−22−7−0%
2010+0.6°F−1−6−2%
2011−0.1°F−3−7−0%
2012+3.5°F+39−19−0%
2013−1.7°F−9+15−0%
2014−3.5°F−29+12−0%
2015+0.1°F−12−15−0%
2016+1.5°F+1−12−2%
2017+0.8°F−13−13−0%
2018−0.8°F+3+25−5%
2019−1.5°F−12+10−0%
2020+0.5°F−1+13−0%
2021+1.7°F+24−1−2%
2022−0.6°F+3+12+6%
2023+1.9°F+6−2−5%
2024+3.2°F+13−26−0%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Aurora, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Aurora?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F98±0.6 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F97±1.1 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°67° to 71°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±5°69° to 74°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±3°65° to 68°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°66° to 69°±17%0% to 17% chance
Wed±3°71° to 73°±14%8% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aurora

today, local time
Sunrise
07:16
Sunset
17:58
Daylight
10h 42m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aurora today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Aurora's high today between 67° and 71°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 73°, with a 3% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Aurora today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Aurora on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 3% (NWS 3%, American 3%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 3%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aurora?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aurora (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aurora?
July is typically the warmest month in Aurora, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Aurora get?
The coldest month in Aurora is January, when overnight lows average about 17°F.
How much rain does Aurora get?
Aurora sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Aurora getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Aurora, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 1.1°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

MontgomeryNorth AuroraBoulder HillOswegoBataviaSugar GroveWarrenvilleGeneva

More US weather

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?US rain radarNWS vs American vs European: models comparedHow we measure forecast accuracyHow accurate is a 7-day forecast?Best time to visit AuroraIllinois weather todayAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadEmbed Aurora on your siteThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS