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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Ames weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 87° in Ames today. Tomorrow looks rain around 84°, with a 45% chance of rain.

87°72°
84°71°
83°68°
94°70°
84°68°
81°60°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Drizzle
Today 89°·Low 72°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
88°
Fog
Today 88°·Low 72°·Rain 12%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Cloudy
Today 85°·Low 71°·Rain 52%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ames and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
87° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
84° 71°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
83° 68°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
94° 70°
±7°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
84° 68°
±7°
Thu
Mostly clear
81° 60°
±9°
Fri
Mostly clear
86° 62°
±23°
Sat
Light rain
84° 66°
±6°
Sun
Light rain
69° 59°
±12°
Mon
Light drizzle
69° 54°
±14°
Tue
Light drizzle
72° 51°
±10°
Wed
Mostly clear
73° 50°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
76° 53°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
74° 56°
models agree

Ames, IA is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 16°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ames right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ames climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
29°
16°
Feb
44°
22°
Mar
49°
29°
Apr
62°
41°
May
75°
53°
Jun
83°
64°
Jul
82°
64°
Aug
82°
65°
Sep
79°
59°
Oct
66°
48°
Nov
50°
34°
Dec
39°
26°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ames?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F96±1.2 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°85° to 89°±40%12% to 52% chance
Tomorrow±4°83° to 86°±28%17% to 45% chance
Mon±3°82° to 84°±12%4% to 16% chance
Tue±7°91° to 98°±5%72% to 77% chance
Wed±7°82° to 88°±2%77% to 79% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ames

today, local time
Sunrise
06:44
Sunset
19:41
Daylight
12h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ames today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ames today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ames today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ames and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ames?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ames (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ames?
June is typically the warmest month in Ames, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Ames get?
The coldest month in Ames is January, when overnight lows average about 16°F.
How much rain does Ames get?
Ames sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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