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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Amarillo weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 72° in Amarillo today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 66°, with a 88% chance of rain.

72°58°
66°58°
65°57°
69°56°
74°56°
72°57°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
57°
Partly cloudy
Feels 53° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 81%
AmericanNOAA GFS
58°
Overcast
Feels 53° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 69%
EuropeanECMWF
59°
Overcast
Feels 57° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 77%

Latest for Amarillo: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 57° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 58° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 59° Overcast.

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Amarillo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Amarillo…

Amarillo weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Amarillo swings 63°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 28°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 22 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 165 days a year at 77°F or above, 99 of them at 86°F or above, 66 frost nights, and rain on 60 days.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
28°F average low
Wettest month
August
22 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, October and November
Residents
199,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
165 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
66 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
60 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Amarillo’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Amarillo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Amarillo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Amarillo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
72° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
66° 58°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
65° 57°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
69° 56°
±5°
Wed
Mostly clear
74° 56°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
72° 57°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
66° 56°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
71° 56°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
69° 54°
±13°
Mon
Light drizzle
66° 49°
±7°
Tue
Partly cloudy
67° 46°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
72° 48°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
65° 47°
±17°

Amarillo, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 28°F), with roughly 22 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Amarillo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Amarillo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
49°
28°
Feb
55°
31°
Mar
62°
38°
Apr
71°
46°
May
79°
56°
Jun
89°
66°
Jul
91°
69°
Aug
90°
67°
Sep
83°
60°
Oct
72°
48°
Nov
60°
38°
Dec
50°
29°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Amarillo's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.4°F

Around Amarillo, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average1997: −2.8°F vs the 30-year average1998: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2003: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2004: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2005: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2007: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average2008: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2010: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2011: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2012: +2.0°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2014: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2015: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2019: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2020: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2022: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.6°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

5 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −12 vs the 30-year average1996: −5 vs the 30-year average1997: −12 vs the 30-year average1998: +15 vs the 30-year average1999: −11 vs the 30-year average2000: +30 vs the 30-year average2001: +12 vs the 30-year average2002: −6 vs the 30-year average2003: −4 vs the 30-year average2004: −19 vs the 30-year average2005: −18 vs the 30-year average2006: +0 vs the 30-year average2007: −32 vs the 30-year average2008: −15 vs the 30-year average2009: −16 vs the 30-year average2010: −10 vs the 30-year average2011: +46 vs the 30-year average2012: +25 vs the 30-year average2013: +2 vs the 30-year average2014: −14 vs the 30-year average2015: −26 vs the 30-year average2016: −7 vs the 30-year average2017: −19 vs the 30-year average2018: +11 vs the 30-year average2019: +9 vs the 30-year average2020: +21 vs the 30-year average2021: −9 vs the 30-year average2022: +30 vs the 30-year average2023: +13 vs the 30-year average2024: +20 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

8 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −13 vs the 30-year average1996: +4 vs the 30-year average1997: +20 vs the 30-year average1998: +5 vs the 30-year average1999: −7 vs the 30-year average2000: +6 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: +15 vs the 30-year average2003: −1 vs the 30-year average2004: −8 vs the 30-year average2005: −11 vs the 30-year average2006: −4 vs the 30-year average2007: +8 vs the 30-year average2008: +3 vs the 30-year average2009: +8 vs the 30-year average2010: +11 vs the 30-year average2011: +10 vs the 30-year average2012: −8 vs the 30-year average2013: +22 vs the 30-year average2014: +8 vs the 30-year average2015: −10 vs the 30-year average2016: −10 vs the 30-year average2017: −24 vs the 30-year average2018: +7 vs the 30-year average2019: +9 vs the 30-year average2020: +4 vs the 30-year average2021: −13 vs the 30-year average2022: +9 vs the 30-year average2023: −13 vs the 30-year average2024: −22 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −2% vs the 30-year average1996: −0% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: −4% vs the 30-year average1999: −0% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −2% vs the 30-year average2002: +4% vs the 30-year average2003: −0% vs the 30-year average2004: −2% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: −4% vs the 30-year average2008: +4% vs the 30-year average2009: −2% vs the 30-year average2010: +2% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: −0% vs the 30-year average2014: +2% vs the 30-year average2015: −4% vs the 30-year average2016: −0% vs the 30-year average2017: −0% vs the 30-year average2018: +4% vs the 30-year average2019: +2% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: +2% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −2% vs the 30-year average2024: +2% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.7°F−12−13−2%
1996−0.5°F−5+4−0%
1997−2.8°F−12+20−2%
1998+0.4°F+15+5−4%
1999−0.5°F−11−7−0%
2000+0.2°F+30+6+4%
2001+0.2°F+12+2−2%
2002−0.9°F−6+15+4%
2003+0.4°F−4−1−0%
2004−1.4°F−19−8−2%
2005−0.5°F−18−11−2%
2006+0.6°F+0−4−2%
2007−1.8°F−32+8−4%
2008−0.9°F−15+3+4%
2009−1.2°F−16+8−2%
2010−0.7°F−10+11+2%
2011+1.7°F+46+10+2%
2012+2.0°F+25−8−2%
2013−1.0°F+2+22−0%
2014−1.0°F−14+8+2%
2015−0.7°F−26−10−4%
2016+1.1°F−7−10−0%
2017+0.4°F−19−24−0%
2018+0.4°F+11+7+4%
2019−0.3°F+9+9+2%
2020+0.9°F+21+4+2%
2021+0.8°F−9−13+2%
2022+1.3°F+30+9+2%
2023+1.7°F+13−13−2%
2024+2.6°F+20−22+2%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Amarillo, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Amarillo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F93±2.2 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°70° to 73°±36%2% to 38% chance
Tomorrow±6°63° to 68°±6%82% to 88% chance
Mon±3°64° to 67°±2%71% to 73% chance
Tue±5°67° to 72°±11%43% to 54% chance
Wed±2°72° to 75°±3%1% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Amarillo

today, local time
Sunrise
08:01
Sunset
19:00
Daylight
10h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Amarillo today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 72° in Amarillo today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 66°, with a 88% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Amarillo today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Amarillo on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 82% (NWS 82%, American 82%, European 88%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 38%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Amarillo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Amarillo (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Amarillo?
July is typically the warmest month in Amarillo, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Amarillo get?
The coldest month in Amarillo is January, when overnight lows average about 28°F.
How much rain does Amarillo get?
Amarillo sees roughly 22 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Amarillo getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Amarillo, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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