Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Castlebar today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.
Castlebar swings 14°C across the year, from 17°C highs in June to 3°C lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1606 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
June
17°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
January
1606 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Castlebar and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Castlebar hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Castlebar 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
17°12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
16°12°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
13°8°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
12°7°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15°7°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
15°10°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
12°10°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
14°10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14°9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14°11°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
13°10°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
12°7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
11°6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
12°6°
models agree
Castlebar, Co. Mayo is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1606 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Castlebar right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
3°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
10°
4°
Apr
11°
5°
May
14°
7°
Jun
17°
10°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
17°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
9°
5°
Dec
8°
4°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Castlebar's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.2°C
Around Castlebar, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.2°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Frost nights
6 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
+0.1°C
+1
+2%
1996
−0.8°C
+20
−0%
1997
+0.4°C
+2
−2%
1998
+0.2°C
−3
+6%
1999
+0.1°C
−5
+6%
2000
−0.2°C
−0
+2%
2001
−0.4°C
+9
−7%
2002
±0.0°C
−5
+3%
2003
+0.2°C
+6
−0%
2004
+0.2°C
−7
+5%
2005
+0.4°C
−7
+2%
2006
+0.3°C
+4
+2%
2007
+0.6°C
−8
−0%
2008
−0.1°C
−2
+3%
2009
−0.1°C
+2
−0%
2010
−1.1°C
+31
−13%
2011
−0.1°C
−1
+5%
2012
−0.3°C
−5
−2%
2013
−0.3°C
+21
−0%
2014
+0.1°C
−8
−3%
2015
−0.6°C
−7
+6%
2016
−0.2°C
−5
−3%
2017
+0.1°C
−6
−0%
2018
−0.1°C
+5
−0%
2019
+0.1°C
−6
−0%
2020
±0.0°C
−9
+5%
2021
+0.4°C
−1
−8%
2022
+0.5°C
−5
−2%
2023
+1.0°C
−3
−3%
2024
+0.3°C
−5
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Castlebar, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Castlebar?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
Met Office ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C
91±4.4 km/h
8994% hit
Met Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European
85
/100rank #2
96±0.2°C
96±2.1 km/h
6581% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
83
/100rank #3
92±0.5°C
94±3.2 km/h
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°16° to 18°
±30%13% to 43% chance
Tomorrow
±1°16° to 17°
±35%65% to 100% chance
Tue
models agree13° to 14°
±38%33% to 71% chance
Wed
±1°12° to 13°
±27%40% to 67% chance
Thu
±1°14° to 15°
±33%67% to 100% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Castlebar
today, local time
Sunrise
07:44
Sunset
19:06
Daylight
11h 22m
Common questions
What's the weather in Castlebar today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Castlebar today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Castlebar today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Castlebar on Monday 5 October: every model gives at least 65% (Met Office 100%, European 65%, American 65%). On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 43%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Castlebar?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Castlebar (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the European at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the IE accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Castlebar?
June is typically the warmest month in Castlebar, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Castlebar get?
The coldest month in Castlebar is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Castlebar get?
Castlebar sees roughly 1606 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
Is Castlebar getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Castlebar, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.2°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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