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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ballina weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Ballina today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.

17°11°
16°11°
13°8°
12°7°
14°7°
15°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
16°
Overcast
Feels 15° · Wind 20 km/h · Humidity 96%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light drizzle
Feels 15° · Wind 19 km/h · Humidity 95%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Overcast
Feels 15° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 94%

Latest for Ballina: Met Office (UKMO model): 16° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 16° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 16° Overcast.

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Ballina weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ballina swings 14°C across the year, from 17°C highs in August to 3°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1488 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
17°C average high
Coldest month
February
3°C average low
Wettest month
October
1488 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Ballina and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ballina hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ballina 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
13° 8°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
14° 7°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
15° 10°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
12° 9°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
13° 9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 11°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
13° 9°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
11° 6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
12° 6°
models agree

Ballina, Co. Mayo is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1488 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Ballina right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland before you trust any single number.

Ballina climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
4°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
10°
5°
Apr
11°
5°
May
13°
7°
Jun
16°
10°
Jul
16°
12°
Aug
17°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
9°
5°
Dec
8°
5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Ballina has changed since 1995

Ballina sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Castlebar. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Castlebar page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ireland?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C96±1.8 km/h8089% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
82
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C92±4.2 km/h6782% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C94±2.8 km/h6279% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 60 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°16° to 17°±74%16% to 90% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 16°±26%74% to 100% chance
Tue±1°13° to 13°±42%33% to 75% chance
Wed±1°12° to 13°±10%58% to 68% chance
Thumodels agree14° to 15°±22%78% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ballina

today, local time
Sunrise
07:44
Sunset
19:05
Daylight
11h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ballina today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 17° in Ballina today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Ballina today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Ballina on Monday 5 October: every model gives at least 74% (Met Office 100%, European 74%, American 90%). On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 90%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ballina?
No single model is always right. Met Office, European, American each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Ballina forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested IE accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Ballina?
August is typically the warmest month in Ballina, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Ballina get?
The coldest month in Ballina is February, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Ballina get?
Ballina sees roughly 1488 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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