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Wollongong weekend weather

This weekend in Wollongong, New South Wales, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 20° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 88% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-11-07 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
26°
Drizzle
High 26°·Low 12°·Rain 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
28°
Showers
High 28°·Low 11°·Rain 75%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Cloudy
High 19°·Low 13°·Rain 55%

The models are 10° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-11-08 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Partly cloudy
High 18°·Low 9°·Rain 26%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Drizzle
High 15°·Low 9°·Rain 70%
GermanDWD ICON
17°
Partly cloudy
High 17°·Low 9°·Rain 45%

The models range from 15° to 18°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°23° to 26°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°25° to 27°±54%30% to 84% chance
Thu±3°19° to 23°±66%18% to 84% chance
Fri±4°21° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sat±10°19° to 28°±33%55% to 88% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 88%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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