Tarneit weekend weather
This weekend in Tarneit, Victoria, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.
Weekend
The models centre on about 26° across the weekend. Agreement is medium - plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day.
Today
2026-09-19 — every model, side by sideEuropeanECMWF
25°
Light drizzle
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
GermanDWD ICON
27°
Cloudy
All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.
Tomorrow
2026-09-20 — every model, side by sideEuropeanECMWF
26°
Partly cloudy
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
GermanDWD ICON
28°
Partly cloudy
The models range from 25° to 28°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Common questions
Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.