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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Nowra weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Nowra's high today between 27° and 30°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 34°, with a 85% chance of rain.

28°14°
34°17°
21°13°
21°10°
24°8°
24°9°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
28°
Light drizzle
Today 28°·Low 15°·Rain 67%
AmericanNOAA GFS
30°
Cloudy
Today 30°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
27°
Partly cloudy
Today 27°·Low 13°·Rain 5%
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Nowra weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Nowra swings 20°C across the year, from 26°C highs in February to 6°C lows in August, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1112 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
26°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
February
1112 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
9,598
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Nowra and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Nowra hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Nowra 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
28° 14°
±4°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
34° 17°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
21° 13°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 10°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
24° 8°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
24° 9°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
23° 13°
±8°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
26° 15°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
24° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
29° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 14°
±7°
Fri
Partly cloudy
24° 12°
±4°

Nowra, New South Wales is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 1112 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Nowra right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Nowra climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
17°
Feb
26°
17°
Mar
24°
15°
Apr
21°
12°
May
18°
9°
Jun
16°
8°
Jul
16°
7°
Aug
17°
6°
Sep
20°
7°
Oct
21°
9°
Nov
23°
14°
Dec
25°
15°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Nowra's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.4°C

Around Nowra, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −1.2°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2002: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2007: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2022: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 30°C

4 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −15 vs the 30-year average1996: −12 vs the 30-year average1997: +0 vs the 30-year average1998: +9 vs the 30-year average1999: −3 vs the 30-year average2000: +2 vs the 30-year average2001: −1 vs the 30-year average2002: −3 vs the 30-year average2003: −2 vs the 30-year average2004: +9 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: +11 vs the 30-year average2007: −4 vs the 30-year average2008: −7 vs the 30-year average2009: +13 vs the 30-year average2010: −7 vs the 30-year average2011: −4 vs the 30-year average2012: −13 vs the 30-year average2013: −3 vs the 30-year average2014: −1 vs the 30-year average2015: −4 vs the 30-year average2016: +9 vs the 30-year average2017: +13 vs the 30-year average2018: +16 vs the 30-year average2019: +20 vs the 30-year average2020: −6 vs the 30-year average2021: −13 vs the 30-year average2022: −17 vs the 30-year average2023: +0 vs the 30-year average2024: +5 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: +1% vs the 30-year average1999: −2% vs the 30-year average2000: +1% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: +5% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +1% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −2% vs the 30-year average2011: −2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −2% vs the 30-year average2015: −2% vs the 30-year average2016: +1% vs the 30-year average2017: −2% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: +1% vs the 30-year average2021: −2% vs the 30-year average2022: +5% vs the 30-year average2023: −2% vs the 30-year average2024: −2% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >30°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.2°C−15+1%
1996−0.9°C−12+1%
1997−0.3°C+0−2%
1998+0.2°C+9+1%
1999−0.2°C−3−2%
2000−0.1°C+2+1%
2001+0.3°C−1+1%
2002±0.0°C−3+1%
2003−0.3°C−2+5%
2004±0.0°C+9+1%
2005+0.3°C−3−2%
2006±0.0°C+11+1%
2007±0.0°C−4+1%
2008−0.6°C−7+1%
2009+0.5°C+13+1%
2010−0.1°C−7−2%
2011−0.3°C−4−2%
2012−0.7°C−13−2%
2013+0.1°C−3+1%
2014+0.2°C−1−2%
2015−0.2°C−4−2%
2016+0.6°C+9+1%
2017+0.5°C+13−2%
2018+0.4°C+16+1%
2019+0.9°C+20−2%
2020−0.2°C−6+1%
2021−0.7°C−13−2%
2022−0.7°C−17+5%
2023+0.6°C+0−2%
2024+0.6°C+5−2%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Nowra, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Nowra?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
76±1.3°C94±2.9 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
83
/100rank #2
83±0.9°C93±3.7 km/h7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
69
/100rank #3
50±2.8°C88±6.0 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°27° to 30°±67%0% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±2°34° to 35°±20%65% to 85% chance
Mon±3°19° to 22°±27%69% to 96% chance
Tue±4°19° to 23°±33%38% to 71% chance
Wed±6°21° to 27°±43%9% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Nowra

today, local time
Sunrise
06:04
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
13h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Nowra today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Nowra's high today between 27° and 30°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 34°, with a 85% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Nowra today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Nowra on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 65% (European 69%, American 85%, German 65%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 67%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Nowra?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Nowra (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Nowra?
February is typically the warmest month in Nowra, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Nowra get?
The coldest month in Nowra is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Nowra get?
Nowra sees roughly 1112 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.
Is Nowra getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Nowra, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

More AU weather