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CheckWeather AU›Neutral Bay
Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 5°C

Neutral Bay weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Neutral Bay's high today between 24° and 29°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 32°, with a 90% chance of rain.

26°16°
32°19°
22°15°
21°13°
23°12°
22°13°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±2°
EuropeanECMWF
24°
Mostly clear
Today 24°·Low 16°·Rain 16%
AmericanNOAA GFS
29°
Cloudy
Today 29°·Low 17°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
26°
Fog
Today 26°·Low 16°·Rain 0%
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Neutral Bay weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Neutral Bay swings 19°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 7°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1134 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
February
1134 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Neutral Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Neutral Bay hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Neutral Bay 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
26° 16°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
32° 19°
±4°
Mon
Showers
22° 15°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 12°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
22° 13°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
22° 15°
±3°
Sat
Showers
27° 16°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
28° 15°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 16°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
22° 14°
±2°

Neutral Bay, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1134 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Neutral Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Neutral Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
19°
Feb
25°
18°
Mar
25°
17°
Apr
22°
14°
May
19°
10°
Jun
17°
8°
Jul
16°
7°
Aug
17°
7°
Sep
21°
8°
Oct
22°
11°
Nov
23°
16°
Dec
26°
18°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Neutral Bay has changed since 1995

Neutral Bay sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Sydney. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Sydney page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Neutral Bay?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
90±0.5°C97±1.7 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
83
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C96±2.1 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
71
/100rank #3
53±2.6°C94±3.2 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°24° to 29°±16%0% to 16% chance
Tomorrow±4°29° to 33°±50%40% to 90% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°±14%73% to 87% chance
Tue±1°21° to 22°±64%13% to 77% chance
Wed±5°20° to 26°±68%9% to 77% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Neutral Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:03
Sunset
19:15
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Neutral Bay today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Neutral Bay's high today between 24° and 29°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 32°, with a 90% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Neutral Bay today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Neutral Bay on Sunday 25 October: European 78%, American 90%, German 40%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 16%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Neutral Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Neutral Bay (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Neutral Bay?
January is typically the warmest month in Neutral Bay, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Neutral Bay get?
The coldest month in Neutral Bay is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Neutral Bay get?
Neutral Bay sees roughly 1134 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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