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CheckWeather AUNarellan Vale
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Narellan Vale weather

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Partly cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Narellan Vale today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 23°, with a 65% chance of rain.

23°12°
23°
19°
19°
19°
22°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Partly cloudy
Today 23°·Low 12°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Clear
Today 23°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 13°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Narellan Vale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
23° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
23°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
22°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
22°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
26°
models agree
Mon
Clear
29°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
23° 11°
±4°
Wed
Partly cloudy
22°
±8°
Thu
Mostly clear
20°
±7°
Fri
Clear
27°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
31° 12°
models agree

Narellan Vale, New South Wales is at its warmest in Dec (average highs near 30°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 725 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Narellan Vale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Narellan Vale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
28°
18°
Feb
28°
18°
Mar
27°
16°
Apr
22°
12°
May
19°
Jun
17°
Jul
17°
Aug
20°
Sep
23°
Oct
24°
11°
Nov
27°
15°
Dec
30°
17°

Which forecast is most accurate in Narellan Vale?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
G
German ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C97±1.6 km/t8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
88
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C97±1.7 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
73±1.5°C94±3.2 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°23° to 23°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tomorrow±4°21° to 25°±45%20% to 65% chance
Tue±2°18° to 20°±42%9% to 51% chance
Wed±4°16° to 20°±37%5% to 42% chance
Thu±2°18° to 20°±8%0% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Narellan Vale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:09
Sunset
17:41
Daylight
11h 32m

Common questions

What's the weather in Narellan Vale today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Narellan Vale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Narellan Vale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Narellan Vale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Narellan Vale?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Narellan Vale (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Narellan Vale?
December is typically the warmest month in Narellan Vale, with average highs around 30°C.
How cold does Narellan Vale get?
The coldest month in Narellan Vale is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Narellan Vale get?
Narellan Vale sees roughly 725 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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