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CheckWeather AUMordialloc
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Mordialloc weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Mordialloc's high today between 16° and 18°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 92% chance of rain.

16°12°
14°
14°
13°
14°
16°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Drizzle
Today 16°·Low 12°·Rain 98%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain 75%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low 12°·Rain 48%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mordialloc and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
16° 12°
±2°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
16°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
21°
±2°
Sun
Light rain
22° 12°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
15°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
20° 11°
±9°

Mordialloc, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 9°C), with roughly 735 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mordialloc right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Mordialloc climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
24°
16°
Feb
24°
15°
Mar
22°
15°
Apr
18°
12°
May
15°
10°
Jun
14°
Jul
12°
Aug
14°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
17°
11°
Nov
20°
14°
Dec
22°
15°

Which forecast is most accurate in Mordialloc?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
G
German ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C88±5.8 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
85
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C89±5.7 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #3
74±1.4°C88±6.1 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 18°±50%48% to 98% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree14° to 14°±57%35% to 92% chance
Tue±2°14° to 15°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wed±1°13° to 13°±10%63% to 73% chance
Thu±1°14° to 14°±10%2% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mordialloc

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
11h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mordialloc today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Mordialloc today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Mordialloc today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Mordialloc and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mordialloc?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Mordialloc (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the European at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mordialloc?
January is typically the warmest month in Mordialloc, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Mordialloc get?
The coldest month in Mordialloc is June, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Mordialloc get?
Mordialloc sees roughly 735 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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