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Minchinbury weather

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Minchinbury weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Minchinbury swings 25°C across the year, from 29°C highs in January to 4°C lows in August, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 869 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
29°C average high
Coldest month
August
4°C average low
Wettest month
February
869 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and June
Residents
5,627
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Minchinbury and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Minchinbury hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Minchinbury 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Minchinbury, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 4°C), with roughly 869 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Minchinbury right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Minchinbury climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
19°
Feb
29°
18°
Mar
26°
14°
Apr
23°
12°
May
19°
8°
Jun
17°
6°
Jul
17°
5°
Aug
17°
4°
Sep
22°
7°
Oct
24°
9°
Nov
25°
14°
Dec
29°
16°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Minchinbury has changed since 1995

Minchinbury sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Blacktown. That square ran 0.7°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Blacktown page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Minchinbury?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C96±2.0 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C96±2.2 km/h5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C86±7.0 km/h5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Minchinbury today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Minchinbury today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Minchinbury today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Minchinbury and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Minchinbury?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Minchinbury (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Minchinbury?
January is typically the warmest month in Minchinbury, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Minchinbury get?
The coldest month in Minchinbury is August, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Minchinbury get?
Minchinbury sees roughly 869 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

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