European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Esperance today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 16°, with a 74% chance of rain.
Esperance swings 15°C across the year, from 25°C highs in February to 10°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 638 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
February
25°C average high
Coldest month
July
10°C average low
Wettest month
July
638 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
14,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Esperance and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Esperance hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Esperance 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
16°9°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
16°7°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20°7°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
19°9°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
20°8°
±3°
Thu
Mostly clear
23°9°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
32°11°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
28°15°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
28°14°
±2°
Mon
Mostly clear
23°14°
±3°
Tue
Mostly clear
21°13°
±4°
Wed
Partly cloudy
25°12°
±2°
Thu
Partly cloudy
26°14°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
20°12°
±3°
Esperance, Western Australia is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 10°C), with roughly 638 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Esperance right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
24°
17°
Feb
25°
17°
Mar
23°
17°
Apr
22°
15°
May
20°
13°
Jun
16°
11°
Jul
17°
10°
Aug
17°
10°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
20°
12°
Nov
22°
14°
Dec
22°
15°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Esperance's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
±0.0°C
Around Esperance, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is ±0.0°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
1 fewer day a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.4°C
−8
+1%
1996
±0.0°C
−2
+6%
1997
±0.0°C
+6
−1%
1998
+0.1°C
+4
+0%
1999
+0.1°C
−5
+3%
2000
−0.1°C
−7
+1%
2001
−0.2°C
+2
−3%
2002
−0.1°C
+8
+3%
2003
−0.2°C
+5
+3%
2004
−0.2°C
+1
−1%
2005
−0.3°C
+0
+0%
2006
−0.1°C
−4
−4%
2007
−0.1°C
+6
+3%
2008
±0.0°C
−6
+1%
2009
±0.0°C
+2
+1%
2010
−0.1°C
+3
−4%
2011
+0.4°C
−7
−1%
2012
+0.2°C
+1
+0%
2013
+0.4°C
+8
−3%
2014
+0.3°C
−2
−3%
2015
+0.1°C
+4
−4%
2016
−0.7°C
−6
+0%
2017
−0.2°C
−1
−3%
2018
−0.1°C
−2
+0%
2019
±0.0°C
+8
−4%
2020
+0.1°C
−3
+3%
2021
−0.2°C
+1
+3%
2022
−0.1°C
−3
+4%
2023
±0.0°C
−11
+0%
2024
+0.4°C
+0
+0%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Esperance, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Esperance?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
77±1.3°C
94±3.2 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
78
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C
95±2.6 km/h
6581% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
71
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C
92±3.9 km/h
4771% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
models agree16° to 16°
±45%55% to 100% chance
Tomorrow
±2°15° to 16°
±59%15% to 74% chance
Mon
±1°19° to 20°
±41%8% to 49% chance
Tue
±3°17° to 21°
±15%3% to 18% chance
Wed
±3°19° to 21°
±26%13% to 39% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Esperance
today, local time
Sunrise
05:00
Sunset
18:12
Daylight
13h 12m
Common questions
What's the weather in Esperance today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Esperance today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 16°, with a 74% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Esperance today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Esperance on Sunday 25 October: European 69%, American 74%, German 15%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Esperance?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Esperance (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Esperance?
February is typically the warmest month in Esperance, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Esperance get?
The coldest month in Esperance is July, when overnight lows average about 10°C.
How much rain does Esperance get?
Esperance sees roughly 638 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Esperance getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Esperance, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.0°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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