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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Alice Springs (The Alice) weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 37° in Alice Springs today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 30°, with a 28% chance of rain.

37°22°
30°21°
32°17°
31°18°
32°18°
28°20°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±10°Thursdaysplit ±5°
EuropeanECMWF
30°
Clear
Feels 27° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 24%
AmericanNOAA GFS
31°
Clear
Feels 27° · Wind 18 km/h · Humidity 20%
GermanDWD ICON
30°
Partly cloudy
Feels 29° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 28%

Latest for Alice Springs: European (ECMWF): 30° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 31° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 30° Partly cloudy.

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Alice Springs weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Alice Springs swings 29°C across the year, from 36°C highs in January to 7°C lows in June, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 275 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
36°C average high
Coldest month
June
7°C average low
Wettest month
January
275 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
26,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Alice Springs and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Alice Springs hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Alice Springs 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
37° 22°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
30° 21°
±2°
Mon
Showers
32° 17°
models agree
Tue
Showers
31° 18°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
32° 18°
±10°
Thu
Drizzle
28° 20°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
31° 19°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
32° 19°
±6°
Sun
Clear
33° 21°
±7°
Mon
Partly cloudy
35° 22°
±3°
Tue
Showers
36° 22°
±2°
Wed
Clear
34° 22°
±3°
Thu
Mostly clear
35° 22°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
39° 23°
models agree

Alice Springs, Northern Territory (often shortened to The Alice) is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 36°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 7°C), with roughly 275 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Alice Springs right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Alice Springs climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
36°
24°
Feb
36°
23°
Mar
32°
20°
Apr
28°
15°
May
24°
11°
Jun
19°
7°
Jul
19°
7°
Aug
24°
9°
Sep
28°
13°
Oct
32°
17°
Nov
32°
19°
Dec
35°
20°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Alice Springs' weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Alice Springs, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average1996: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2000: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2001: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2007: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2008: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2010: −2.4°C vs the 30-year average2011: −1.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2014: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2017: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2019: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2022: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2024: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 35°C

18 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −19 vs the 30-year average1996: +1 vs the 30-year average1997: −19 vs the 30-year average1998: +17 vs the 30-year average1999: +1 vs the 30-year average2000: −39 vs the 30-year average2001: −31 vs the 30-year average2002: +13 vs the 30-year average2003: −3 vs the 30-year average2004: +12 vs the 30-year average2005: +22 vs the 30-year average2006: +14 vs the 30-year average2007: −3 vs the 30-year average2008: +12 vs the 30-year average2009: +4 vs the 30-year average2010: −55 vs the 30-year average2011: −42 vs the 30-year average2012: −4 vs the 30-year average2013: +12 vs the 30-year average2014: −2 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: +3 vs the 30-year average2017: +30 vs the 30-year average2018: +22 vs the 30-year average2019: +39 vs the 30-year average2020: +14 vs the 30-year average2021: −15 vs the 30-year average2022: −17 vs the 30-year average2023: +3 vs the 30-year average2024: +31 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

no clear change

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +9% vs the 30-year average1997: −1% vs the 30-year average1998: +1% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: −4% vs the 30-year average2001: −6% vs the 30-year average2002: −1% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: −1% vs the 30-year average2005: −4% vs the 30-year average2006: +3% vs the 30-year average2007: −1% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: +5% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: −1% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: −1% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: +1% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: +3% vs the 30-year average2020: +3% vs the 30-year average2021: +1% vs the 30-year average2022: −1% vs the 30-year average2023: −4% vs the 30-year average2024: +1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >35°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.6°C−19+5%
1996+0.6°C+1+9%
1997−0.4°C−19−1%
1998+0.5°C+17+1%
1999+0.3°C+1−1%
2000−1.1°C−39−4%
2001−1.1°C−31−6%
2002+0.4°C+13−1%
2003+0.2°C−3+1%
2004+0.5°C+12−1%
2005+0.8°C+22−4%
2006+0.3°C+14+3%
2007±0.0°C−3−1%
2008±0.0°C+12+3%
2009+0.3°C+4+5%
2010−2.4°C−55−1%
2011−1.3°C−42−1%
2012−0.9°C−4−1%
2013+0.9°C+12−1%
2014−0.1°C−2−1%
2015−0.3°C+2+1%
2016+0.5°C+3−1%
2017+1.1°C+30−1%
2018+0.9°C+22+1%
2019+1.1°C+39+3%
2020+0.7°C+14+3%
2021−0.5°C−15+1%
2022−0.4°C−17−1%
2023+0.3°C+3−4%
2024+1.1°C+31+1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Alice Springs, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Alice Springs?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.7 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
81
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C93±3.4 km/h7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C79±10.7 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°36° to 37°±23%2% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±2°29° to 31°±18%10% to 28% chance
Mon±2°31° to 33°±82%10% to 92% chance
Tue±7°27° to 34°±58%18% to 76% chance
Wed±10°27° to 37°±59%14% to 73% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alice Springs

today, local time
Sunrise
05:53
Sunset
18:43
Daylight
12h 50m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alice Springs today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 37° in Alice Springs today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 30°, with a 28% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Alice Springs today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Alice Springs on Sunday 25 October: European 10%, American 28%, German 20%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 25%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alice Springs?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alice Springs (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the German at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alice Springs?
January is typically the warmest month in Alice Springs, with average highs around 36°C.
How cold does Alice Springs get?
The coldest month in Alice Springs is June, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Alice Springs get?
Alice Springs sees roughly 275 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
Is Alice Springs getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Alice Springs, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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