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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Tralee weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Tralee today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 17°, with a 67% chance of rain.

18°12°
17°15°
15°11°
13°9°
15°10°
15°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 14°·Rain 67%
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain 24%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 12°·Rain 29%
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Tralee weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Tralee swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1365 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
January
1365 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
26,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Tralee and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Tralee hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Tralee 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
17° 15°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
15° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Thu
Rain
15° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
15° 11°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
13° 11°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
14° 9°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 11°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
13° 9°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 9°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
15° 11°
models agree

Tralee, Co. Kerry. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Tralee right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Tralee's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland before you trust any single number.

Tralee weather by month

what to expect in Tralee through the year, 1991-2020 averages

Here is Tralee's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Tralee by season.

Jan
8°
2°
Cool
Wettest
Feb
9°
4°
Cool
Mar
10°
4°
Cool
Apr
11°
5°
Cool
May
15°
7°
Mild
Jun
17°
10°
Mild
Jul
17°
11°
Mild
Aug
18°
12°
Mild
Sep
16°
10°
Mild
Oct
13°
8°
Cool
Nov
10°
5°
Cool
Dec
9°
4°
Cool

What Tralee's weather is like through the year

Tralee runs from warm summers, with August highs near 18°C, to cool winters, when January lows sit around 2°C (a swing of about 16°C across the year). January is usually the wettest month, and Tralee sees roughly 1365 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Tralee

The most comfortable time to visit Tralee is usually June, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.

How Tralee's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.1°C

Around Tralee, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2018: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +0% vs the 30-year average1996: +0% vs the 30-year average1997: −3% vs the 30-year average1998: +6% vs the 30-year average1999: +4% vs the 30-year average2000: +3% vs the 30-year average2001: −8% vs the 30-year average2002: +4% vs the 30-year average2003: +0% vs the 30-year average2004: +2% vs the 30-year average2005: −1% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: −4% vs the 30-year average2008: +4% vs the 30-year average2009: +0% vs the 30-year average2010: −11% vs the 30-year average2011: +3% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: +7% vs the 30-year average2016: −3% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: −1% vs the 30-year average2019: +3% vs the 30-year average2020: +6% vs the 30-year average2021: −7% vs the 30-year average2022: −1% vs the 30-year average2023: −1% vs the 30-year average2024: −3% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageWind vs avg
1995+0.1°C+0%
1996−0.7°C+0%
1997+0.3°C−3%
1998+0.1°C+6%
1999+0.2°C+4%
2000−0.2°C+3%
2001−0.2°C−8%
2002+0.1°C+4%
2003+0.3°C+0%
2004+0.1°C+2%
2005+0.2°C−1%
2006+0.2°C−1%
2007+0.5°C−4%
2008−0.1°C+4%
2009−0.2°C+0%
2010−0.9°C−11%
2011−0.3°C+3%
2012−0.3°C−1%
2013−0.2°C+2%
2014+0.2°C−1%
2015−0.5°C+7%
2016−0.1°C−3%
2017+0.1°C−1%
2018−0.1°C−1%
2019+0.1°C+3%
2020−0.2°C+6%
2021+0.3°C−7%
2022+0.5°C−1%
2023+0.8°C−1%
2024+0.3°C−3%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Tralee, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Tralee?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C97±1.3 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C93±3.5 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
82
/100rank #3
81±1.0°C91±4.5 km/h7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 60 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Tralee, scoring 90/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 84. See the full IE accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 19°±43%24% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 18°±49%18% to 67% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±39%61% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree13° to 13°±32%35% to 67% chance
Thu±1°14° to 15°±56%44% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Tralee

today, local time
Sunrise
07:44
Sunset
19:09
Daylight
11h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Tralee today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Tralee today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 17°, with a 67% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Tralee today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Tralee on Monday 5 October: Met Office 67%, European 55%, American 18%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 67%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tralee?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Tralee (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the IE accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tralee?
August is typically the warmest month in Tralee, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Tralee get?
The coldest month in Tralee is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Tralee get?
Tralee sees roughly 1365 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Tralee?
The most comfortable time to visit Tralee is usually June, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Tralee?
Rarely - Tralee very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.
Is Tralee getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Tralee, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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