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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Bagenalstown weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Bagenalstown today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 71% chance of rain.

19°7°
19°15°
15°10°
13°6°
13°6°
15°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Partly cloudy
Feels 17° · Wind 13 km/h · Humidity 82%
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Overcast
Feels 16° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 82%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Overcast
Feels 18° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 85%

Latest for Bagenalstown: Met Office (UKMO model): 18° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 17° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 18° Overcast.

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The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Bagenalstown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bagenalstown hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bagenalstown 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
19° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
13° 8°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
16° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
15° 10°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 9°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
12° 7°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
11° 7°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
13° 7°
±3°

Bagenalstown is a small town of about 2,837 people in Co. Carlow, sitting at 52.7°N in a temperate climate zone. Met Office, European, American each forecast Bagenalstown with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Carlow, Tullow, Kilkenny.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland before you trust any single number.

How the weather around Bagenalstown has changed since 1995

Bagenalstown sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Waterford. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Waterford page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ireland?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C96±1.8 km/h8089% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
82
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C92±4.2 km/h6782% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C94±2.8 km/h6279% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 60 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 20°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±2°19° to 20°±38%33% to 71% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±28%39% to 67% chance
Wed±1°13° to 13°±8%25% to 33% chance
Thu±1°13° to 14°±64%36% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bagenalstown

today, local time
Sunrise
07:34
Sunset
18:57
Daylight
11h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bagenalstown today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Bagenalstown today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 71% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Bagenalstown today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Bagenalstown on Monday 5 October: Met Office 33%, European 65%, American 71%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 6%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bagenalstown?
No single model is always right. Met Office, European, American each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Bagenalstown forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested IE accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.

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