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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ashbourne weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Ashbourne today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 47% chance of rain.

18°8°
18°15°
15°9°
12°6°
12°6°
15°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 8°·Rain 33%
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 8°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low 9°·Rain 0%
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Ashbourne weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ashbourne swings 16°C across the year, from 19°C highs in July to 3°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 892 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
October
892 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Ashbourne and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ashbourne hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ashbourne 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 8°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
18° 15°
models agree
Tue
Rain
15° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
13° 8°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 10°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 9°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
12° 6°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
11° 5°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
11° 6°
models agree

Ashbourne, Co. Meath is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 892 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Ashbourne right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland before you trust any single number.

Ashbourne climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
3°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
4°
May
15°
7°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
19°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
8°
4°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Ashbourne has changed since 1995

Ashbourne sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Dublin. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Dublin page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ashbourne?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C98±0.9 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #2
94±0.4°C90±4.9 km/h6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C97±1.7 km/h5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 60 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 19°±33%0% to 33% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±24%23% to 47% chance
Tuemodels agree15° to 15°±8%67% to 75% chance
Wed±1°12° to 13°±50%17% to 67% chance
Thu±1°12° to 13°±36%45% to 81% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ashbourne

today, local time
Sunrise
07:32
Sunset
18:55
Daylight
11h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ashbourne today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Ashbourne today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 47% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Ashbourne today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Ashbourne on Monday 5 October: Met Office 33%, European 47%, American 23%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 33%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ashbourne?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ashbourne (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Met Office at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the IE accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ashbourne?
July is typically the warmest month in Ashbourne, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Ashbourne get?
The coldest month in Ashbourne is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Ashbourne get?
Ashbourne sees roughly 892 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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