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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Dungarvan weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Dungarvan today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 42% chance of rain.

18°12°
19°15°
16°11°
13°7°
14°7°
16°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Partly cloudy
Feels 18° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 82%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Overcast
Feels 15° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 89%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Overcast
Feels 16° · Wind 21 km/h · Humidity 87%

Latest for Dungarvan: Met Office (UKMO model): 18° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 16° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 17° Overcast.

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Dungarvan weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Dungarvan swings 14°C across the year, from 18°C highs in July to 4°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1076 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
4°C average low
Wettest month
October
1076 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
7,551
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Dungarvan and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dungarvan hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dungarvan 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
16° 11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
13° 7°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
14° 7°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
14° 8°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15° 10°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
15° 11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
14° 11°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
13° 9°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 9°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
14° 11°
±3°

Dungarvan, Co. Waterford is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1076 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Dungarvan right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland before you trust any single number.

Dungarvan climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
4°
Feb
9°
5°
Mar
9°
5°
Apr
11°
6°
May
15°
9°
Jun
17°
11°
Jul
18°
12°
Aug
18°
13°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
9°
Nov
10°
6°
Dec
9°
5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Dungarvan's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.2°C

Around Dungarvan, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.2°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2004: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2019: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Average wind

−2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +2% vs the 30-year average1997: −1% vs the 30-year average1998: +5% vs the 30-year average1999: +4% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −7% vs the 30-year average2002: +4% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: −3% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −9% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: +5% vs the 30-year average2016: −3% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: −3% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: +7% vs the 30-year average2021: −6% vs the 30-year average2022: −4% vs the 30-year average2023: −1% vs the 30-year average2024: −3% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageWind vs avg
1995+0.1°C+1%
1996−0.7°C+2%
1997+0.3°C−1%
1998+0.1°C+5%
1999+0.1°C+4%
2000−0.3°C+4%
2001−0.3°C−7%
2002+0.1°C+4%
2003+0.2°C+1%
2004±0.0°C+1%
2005+0.1°C+1%
2006+0.3°C−1%
2007+0.4°C−3%
2008−0.3°C+5%
2009−0.4°C+1%
2010−1.1°C−9%
2011−0.2°C+2%
2012−0.5°C−1%
2013−0.5°C+2%
2014+0.2°C−1%
2015−0.4°C+5%
2016−0.2°C−3%
2017+0.1°C−1%
2018+0.1°C−3%
2019±0.0°C+1%
2020−0.1°C+7%
2021+0.2°C−6%
2022+0.6°C−4%
2023+0.7°C−1%
2024+0.3°C−3%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dungarvan, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ireland?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
94±0.4°C96±1.8 km/h8089% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
82
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C92±4.2 km/h6782% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C94±2.8 km/h6279% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 60 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Ireland, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Ireland? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 18°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±34%8% to 42% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±41%33% to 74% chance
Wed±1°13° to 14°±26%25% to 51% chance
Thu±1°14° to 15°±41%26% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dungarvan

today, local time
Sunrise
07:36
Sunset
19:00
Daylight
11h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dungarvan today?
Sunday 4 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Dungarvan today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 19°, with a 42% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Dungarvan today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Dungarvan on Monday 5 October: Met Office 33%, European 8%, American 42%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Sunday 4 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 3%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dungarvan?
No single model is always right. Met Office, European, American each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Dungarvan forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested IE accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Dungarvan?
July is typically the warmest month in Dungarvan, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Dungarvan get?
The coldest month in Dungarvan is January, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Dungarvan get?
Dungarvan sees roughly 1076 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Dungarvan getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Dungarvan, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.2°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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